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Chinese Naval Shipbuilding: An Ambitious and Uncertain Course (Studies in Chinese Maritime Development)From NAVAL INSTITUTE
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One of this century's most significant events, China's maritime transformation is already making waves. Yet China's course and its implications, including at sea, remain highly uncertain―triggering intense speculation and concern from many quarters and in many directions. It has never been more important to assess what ships China can supply its navy and other maritime forces with, today and in the future. China's shipbuilding industry has grown more rapidly than any other in modern history. Commercial shipbuilding output jumped thirteen-fold from 2002-12. Beijing has largely met its goal of becoming the world's largest shipbuilder by 2015. Yet progress is uneven, with military shipbuilding leading overall but with significant weakness in propulsion and electronics for military and civilian applications alike. Moreover, no other book has answered three pressing questions: What are China's prospects for success in key areas of naval shipbuilding? What are the likely results for China's navy? What are the implications for the U.S. Navy?To address these critical, complex issues, this volume brings together some of the world's leading experts and linguistic analysts, often pairing them in research teams. These sailors, scholars, analysts, industry experts, and other professionals have commanded ships at sea, led shipbuilding programs ashore, toured Chinese vessels and production facilities, invested in Chinese shipyards and advised others in their investment, and analyzed and presented important data to top-level decision-makers in times of crisis. In synthesizing their collective insights, the book fills a key gap in our understanding of China, its shipbuilding, its navy, and what it all means.Their findings will fascinate and concern you. While offering different perspectives, they largely agree on several important points. Through a process of "imitative innovation," China has been able to "leap frog" some naval development, engineering, and production steps and achieve tremendous cost and time savings by leveraging work done by the U.S. and other countries. China's shipbuilding industry is poised to make the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) the second largest navy in the world by 2020, and―if current trends continue―a combat fleet that in overall order of battle (i.e., hardware-specific terms) is quantitatively and even perhaps qualitatively on a par with that of the U.S. Navy by 2030. Already, Chinese ship-design and -building advances are increasing the PLAN's ability to contest sea control in a widening arc of the Western Pacific.China continues to lack transparency in important respects, but much is knowable through the interdisciplinary research approach pioneered by the Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute in the series "Studies in Chinese Maritime Development," of which this is the sixth volume. "To understand China's naval future, we must understand what its shipbuilding industry can provide. This path-breaking volume points the way."--Evan S. Medeiros, former Senior Director for Asian Affairs, U.S. National Security Council
- Amazon Sales Rank: #662014 in Books
- Brand: NAVAL INSTITUTE
- Published on: 2017-01-15
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.10" h x 1.40" w x 6.20" l,
- Binding: Hardcover
- 376 pages
Features
Review "A nation's shipbuilding capabilities and capacities can promote or constrain its strategy and ambitions at sea. Mahan knew this, and so do the Chinese. This new volume from CMSI is a great source of insights on China's shipbuilding industrial base and the means that will be at Beijing's disposal in the future. I would recommend it to anyone who wants to better understand the competition for maritime superiority that is looming before us."--Congressman J. Randy Forbes, Chairman, House Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee"A good book on a very important set of questions. Now and in the future we need to know as much as we can about the capabilities and practices of the organizations that design, build, and maintain the ships of China's navy and its auxiliaries."--Andrew W. Marshall, former Director, Office of Net Assessment, Pentagon"The contributors to this volume shed new light on an important but under-studied topic: the industrial sinews of China's naval modernization and expansion. It deserves to be studied by scholars and policy makers alike."--Thomas G. Mahnken, President and CEO, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments"China's intention to become a major maritime power in the coming decades is well known, but much less appreciated are the means by which it will attain that status. Andrew Erickson's Chinese Naval Shipbuilding: An Ambitious and Uncertain Course thoughtfully, clearly, and factually presents the many facets of China's commercial and naval shipbuilding ambition and the sobering scope of that national enterprise. To project China's direction and pace in maritime and global affairs and their impact on U.S. maritime power without absorbing the insights of this book's extraordinary contributors would be a huge mistake and a sure way to get the future wrong. A must at the top of every national security reading list." --Admiral Gary Roughead, USN (Ret.), 29th Chief of Naval Operations"Does China have the means to become a leading global naval power? In the coming decades, can China's design bureaus, shipyards, and supporting industries build the fleet it will need to fulfill this lofty ambition? This thorough, well-researched, and original volume provides answers to these vitally important questions. Essential reading for analysts, policymakers, naval officers, and American citizens concerned with their country's future as the world's preponderant sea power."--Aaron L. Friedberg, Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Princeton University
From the Author CONTENTS OF VOLUME List of Exhibits Acknowledgments Introduction. China's Military Shipbuilding Industry Steams Ahead, On What Course? Andrew S. Erickson Part I. FOUNDATION AND RESOURCES Warfare Drivers: Mission Needs and the Impact on Ship Design Christopher P. Carlson and Jack Bianchi Status, Goals, Prospects: Party-State Strategic Requirements for China's Shipbuilding IndustryMorgan Clemens and Ian Easton Resources for China's State Shipbuilders: Now Including Global Capital Markets Gabe Collins and Eric Anderson Part II. SHIPYARD INFRASTRUCTURE Key Factors in Chinese Shipyards' Development and Performance: Commercial-Military Synergy and Divergence Sue Hall and Audrye Wong China's Naval Strength: Current and Future Alex Pape and Tate Nurkin Monitoring Chinese Shipbuilding Facilities with Satellite Imagery Sean O'Connor and Jordan Wilson Civil-Military Integration Potential in Chinese Shipbuilding Daniel Alderman and Rush Doshi Part III. NAVAL ARCHITECTURE AND DESIGN PLAN Warship Construction and Standardization Mark Metcalf China's Military Shipbuilding Research, Development, and Acquisition System Kevin Pollpeter and Mark Stokes China's Civilian Shipbuilding in Competitive Context: An Asian Industrial Perspective Julian Snelder Part IV. REMAINING SHIPBUILDING CHALLENGES PLA Shipboard Electronics: Impeding China's Naval Modernization Leigh Ann Ragland-Luce and John Costello Underpowered: Chinese Conventional and Nuclear Naval Power and Propulsion Andrew S. Erickson, Jonathan Ray, and Robert T. Forte China's Aircraft Carrier Program: Drivers, Developments, Implications Andrew Scobell, Michael E. McMahon, Cortez A. Cooper III, and Arthur Chan Part V. CONCLUSIONS AND ALTERNATIVE FUTURES Maximal Scenario: Expansive Naval Trajectory to "China's Naval Dream" James E. Fanell and Scott Cheney-Peters Medium Scenario: World's Second "Far Seas" Navy by 2020 Michael McDevitt Technological "Wild Cards" and Twenty-First-Century Naval Warfare Paul Scharre and Tyler Jost How China's Shipbuilding Output Might Affect Requirements for U.S. Navy Capabilities Ronald O'Rourke List of Acronyms About the Contributors Index LIST OF EXHIBITS Exhibit 0-1. Significant Chinese Naval ShipyardsExhibit 0-2. China's Primary Naval Order of Battle (Major Combatants), 1985-2030Exhibit 1-1. Evolution of China's Naval Strategy--Impact on PLAN Warfare Area Capabilities Exhibit 4-1. Shipbuilding Production Trends Since 1990 (in millions of compensated gross tons) Exhibit 4-2. Historical Shipbuilding Production (in millions of gross tons) Exhibit 4-3. Trends in Production, Ordering, and Forward Orderbook for World Shipbuilding (in millions of compensated gross tons) Exhibit 4-4. World Historical Production and Orderbook Phasing (in millions of compensated gross tons) Exhibit 4-5. China Historical Production and Orderbook Phasing Exhibit 4-6. Top 20 Chinese Shipbuilders from China's Shipyards Report 2003 Exhibit 4-7. Top 20 Chinese Shipbuilders, 2012 Exhibit 4-8. Shipbuilding Throughput Comparison of Major Shipbuilders Exhibit 4-9. Shipbuilding Throughput Changes for Chinese Shipbuilders Exhibit 4-10. New Ship Price VolatilityExhibit 4-11. Complexity Ranking of Ships According to Average Compensated Gross Ton (CGT) CoefficientExhibit 4-12. Composition of Chinese Shipbuilding Production by Size and Complexity Exhibit 5-1. Estimated Chinese Investment in Naval Ship Construction by Type, 2010-24Exhibit 5-2. Bohai (Huludao) Shipyard Military Output, 2006-30Exhibit 5-3. Wuchang (Wuhan) Shipyard Military Output, 2006-30 Exhibit 5-4. Jiangnan (Shanghai) Shipyard Military Output, 2006-30 Exhibit 5-5. Hudong (Shanghai) Shipyard Military Output, 2006-30 Exhibit 5-6. Huangpu Shipyard Military Output, 2006-30 Exhibit 6-1. Configuration and Growth of China's Huludao Shipyard Exhibit 7-1. China's White-Listed ShipyardsExhibit 8-1. Types of GJBs (Guojia Junyong Biaozhun, PRC National Military Standards)Exhibit 8-2. Electromagnetic Compatibility--GJBs and MIL-STDs Exhibit 8-3. GJB 4000-2000 Subject Areas Exhibit 9-1. China's IDAR Technology Innovation Process Exhibit 9-2. First Five Stages in Military Shipbuilding Research and Development Process Exhibit 9-3. Primary Organizations Involved in China's Military Shipbuilding Exhibit 10-1. Experts' Assessment of China Capability Gap versus Class Leader Exhibit 11-1. Key Shipbuilding Organizations Specializing in Shipboard Electronics Exhibit 14-1. PLAN--Platform Inventory in 2015 Exhibit 14-2. PLAN 2030--Forecast Platform Inventory Exhibit 15-1. Far Seas Navies' Major Ships, circa 2020 Exhibit 15-2. Major Far Seas Ships, PLAN vs. U.S. Navy, circa 2020 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS On behalf of the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI), the editor thanks the Naval War College (NWC) Foundation for its important contributions in support of CMSI's 2015 annual conference and this resulting volume. The foundation's generosity has long played a crucial role in ensuring that such events and the publications that flow from them are of the highest caliber, and this past year has offered a particularly important example of that invaluable partnership. As with all CMSI events and conference volumes, countless individuals have made vital contributions. While it is not possible to list them individually, the editor extends his sincere gratitude to all concerned. The support of the leadership of NWC, and of the U.S. Navy more broadly, has been crucial to our efforts. Finally, the Naval Institute Press is to be commended for its professionalism and dedication to the Studies in Chinese Maritime Development series in which this sixth volume appears. That series is the product of nearly a decade of constructive collaboration between two vital historic centers of American thinking on sea power: Annapolis and Newport. Andrew Sven Erickson Newport, Rhode Island December 2015
From the Inside Flap "Studies in Chinese Maritime Development" Book Series Powered by the world's second largest economy and defense budget, China is going to sea with a scale and sophistication that no continental power ever before sustained in the modern era. Its three sea forces are all leaders in their own right: the world's second-largest blue water navy, the world's largest blue water coastguard, and the world's largest (and virtually only) maritime militia. While paramount leader Xi Jinping is working to transform his nation further into a "great maritime power," at a minimum today's Middle Kingdom is already a hybrid land-sea power. Amid European decline and American fiscal and strategic challenges, this historic transformation has the potential to end six centuries of largely Western dominance of the world's oceans. To properly inform its strategy and policy, the U.S. Navy and nation must understand this momentous sea change. Since its establishment in 2006 the China Maritime Studies Institute has been conducting research and holding conferences covering the broad waterfront of Chinese oceanic efforts in order to advise U.S. Navy leadership and support the Naval War College in its core mission area of helping to define the future Navy. The Studies in Chinese Maritime Development series assembles the resulting proceedings into edited volumes focusing on specific topics of importance to further understand the dynamics of these changes. Previous Titles in the SeriesChina's Future Nuclear Submarine ForceChina's Energy Strategy: The Impact on Beijing's Maritime PoliciesChina Goes to Sea: Maritime Transformation in Comparative Historical PerspectiveChina, the United States and 21st-Century Sea Power: Defining a Maritime Security PartnershipChinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles
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